A recent report by Digital TV Research forecasts a significant $1.6 billion drop in pay TV revenues across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between 2016 and 2029. This decline is attributed to the growing influence of Over-The-Top (OTT) platforms and the widespread issue of piracy.
Despite an increase in pay TV subscribers by 3 million, reaching a total of 18 million by 2029, the average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to decrease. Pay TV revenues for 20 MENA countries are projected to fall by 43%, from $3.8 billion in 2016 to $2.2 billion in 2029.
Thirteen of the 20 countries are anticipated to experience revenue losses between 2023 and 2029. Notably, Turkey and Israel are expected to contribute nearly half of the total pay TV revenues in 2029.
For the 13 Arabic-speaking countries, the forecast predicts a decline in pay TV revenues to $802 million by 2029, half of the $1,570 million recorded in 2016. Turkish revenues are expected to reach $707 million in 2029, reflecting a $203 million decrease compared to 2016. In Israel, pay TV revenues are projected to drop from $1.14 billion to $376 million over the same period.
Legitimate pay TV penetration has always been low in most MENA countries, but the decline is accelerating as pay TV subscribers convert to OTT platforms.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst, Digital TV Research
